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Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32269/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T11:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-28 05:39
- Time at C2: 2024-07-28 02:24
- Radial speed: 920.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: S02W01
Inferences:
 - No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
 - In-situ shock speed: 682.00 km/s
 - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-30 11:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.10 hours)

Lead Time: 70.10 hour(s)
Difference: 26.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-28T15:40Z

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